IMD updates monsoon forecast: Predicts 98% rainfall in India, 100% in Maharashtra

India will receive 98 percent rainfall, and Maharashtra 100 percent, during this monsoon between June to September with an error estimate of four percent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

Earlier on April 18, based on then available weather patterns, the IMD had forecast a normal monsoon with average rainfall of around 96 percent on the whole, with an error estimation of plus-minus five percent.

“The final forecast based on different models suggests that the season’s rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98 percent of the long period average (LPA),” M Mahapatra, IMD scientist, told news agency IANS.

After years of deficit, the monsoon was ‘normal’ in 2016 at 97 percent of LPA.

According to IMD Director General, K J Ramesh, the revision to 98 percent was done due to reduced chances of a strong El-Nino, a phenomenon associated with the heating of the Pacific waters.

Ramesh further claimed that the south-west monsoon will be fairly distributed across the country.

The IMD in its forecast said that the long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 was 89 cm.

Individual prediction based over broad geographical areas suggest that central India, that includes Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, will get 100 percent of the LPA.

“The season rainfall is likely to be 96 percent of LPA over northwest India, 100 percent of LPA over central India, 99 percent of LPA over south peninsula, and 96 percent of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of plus-minus eight percent,” the IMD said.

Under northwest India fall Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan.

Under south peninsula fall Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, the Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Under northeast India come Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

“Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 percent of its LPA during July and 99 percent during August both with a model error of plus-minus nine percent,” the IMD said.

According to weathermen, a figure between 96 and 104 percent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 percent above normal.

A below 90 percent rainfall is considered deficient and between 90 and 95 percent is considered below normal.

The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 30 and is expected to hit Mumbai and Goa around June 10.

With agency inputs